Bangkok:The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects that the global economy will maintain real GDP growth above 3% this year, attributing this resilience to robust investment in artificial intelligence, which is helping to counteract the energy shock arising from the Middle East situation.
According to Qatar News Agency, the IMF cautions that downside risks are increasing, with more countries becoming susceptible to escalating debt burdens. Despite oil prices remaining above $100 a barrel, the IMF anticipates 2026 global growth to reach 3.1%, a slight rise from the 3.0% forecasted in July.
The World Economic Outlook forecast, released during the IMF and World Bank annual meetings in Bangkok, aligns with the most optimistic scenario from April but falls short of the 2025 global growth rate of 3.5%. In 2027, the IMF expects a global growth rate of 3.4%, consistent with the July forecast and up by 0.2 percentage points from April. This improvement is largely attributed to sustained investments in artificial intelligence infrastructure, boosting growth in key advanced economies developing AI platforms. Countries like South Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, and Thailand, which are significant suppliers of AI hardware, are seeing growth upgrades.
However, the IMF has issued downward growth revisions for 47% of economies since the April forecasts, notably affecting energy importers outside AI value chains. Among major economies, the United States is predicted to maintain a growth rate of 2.3% for both 2026 and 2027, supported by strong private consumption, tax cuts, and AI investment. However, the benefits from AI are expected to be tempered by its high import content.
In an adverse scenario where escalating conflict drives oil prices to $130 per barrel through early 2027, global growth could diminish by 0.2 percentage points in 2026 and 0.5 percentage points in 2027, with inflation rising by an additional 1.1 percentage points to 5.2% in 2027. The IMF's forecast assumes an average oil price of $96 per barrel for 2026 and $87 in 2027.